Archive for the ‘finance’ Category

Health insurance marketplaces coming to a state near you

Thursday, October 14th, 2010

Even the states whose politics make the idea of “Obamacare” unacceptable are feeling the pressure to begin thinking about insurance marketplaces. As the federal law deadlines edge closer, states must either create their own exchanges through which citizens can buy their policies or face the threat the federal government will offer their own version. Why should GOP states fear the federal government on this? Forgive a little cynicism. If GOP states sit down to write laws for local marketplaces, they can do whatever is in their power to protect the interests of their local insurance companies. Although we have yet to see any specific proposals from the federal government, it’s likely their plans will be a boilerplate solution that favors consumers over the insurers. Since the eventual network of local exchanges will allow millions of Americans to buy their policies, anything that swings the balance of power in favor of consumers is bad news for the profitability of the insurers. This is forcing even the most resistant of state legislatures to start drafting their own laws.

Leading from the front on this comes California which has just passed two statutes to bring the local marketplace into being. It’s likely many other states will follow the Californian solutions except, in Iowa, we have an information-only exchange in preparation which will leave it to the private insurers to sell all policies in that state. The Californian experience is interesting. In addition to the specific provisions mandated by federal law, there has actually been some bipartisan negotiation, if only because Governor Schwarzenegger made an early announcement in favor of the federal system. Not unlike this website, Californians will be able to access a website containing standardized information about policies allowing a full comparison on a like-for-like basis. If citizens have problems in understanding this information, there will be a toll-free number with real people available to explain the health plans to the callers. Even more importantly, this information will be linked to the federal and state subsidies that will help pay for the coverage. The aim is to give people as much information about the available policies and how to pay for them through an independent website. (more…)

Big problems in China

Saturday, October 2nd, 2010

When you start talking about China, you immediate run into massive numbers. It’s hard to imagine it, but the country is edging up to 1.4 billion people. And that’s despite the one-child policy. You remember that. After WWII, the Chinese thought a big population was a good thing but, when the Government saw how difficult it was to feed everyone, they decided big was no longer beautiful and enforced a law limiting each family to one child. This has produced two interesting outcomes. Couples forgot to register the birth of girls, but were proud to announce the arrival of a boy. This has produced an unbalanced population with about 4% more men than women. Many aging families now have no filial children to look after them. Perhaps more importantly, despite the abandonment of the policy, modern couples are no longer planning families. That’s allowing for the fact that, with a shortage of women, there are fewer couples anyway.

Why should this matter? Well, as time passes and the population ages, there will be fewer people around to produce the children to keep China going. Then along comes even more exciting news. According to a research project undertaken by Peking University People’s Hospital, slightly more than 25% of Chinese men currently suffer from erectile dysfunction. OK let’s put this in context. Allowing for a reasonable proportion of these men not being in relationships, or being too old to have children, that’s millions of men who are unable to get their wives pregnant. Now put aside all the old Cold War thinking that, if the US just sits still, China will collapse during the next century and the US will maintain its supremacy. If society begins to break down, there’s no guarantee this will be a peaceful process. Anyway, by the time the Chinese demographic time bomb strikes, the US will be controlled by the majority Latino, Asian and African American population. Their foreign policy may be rather different to the current caucasian view of the world. As an aside, we should note the current birth rate among the white population is falling rapidly with some 18% of adult US males reporting erectile dysfunction. (more…)